Comcom Magazine

Scientists Warn Extreme Climate Changes in the Near Future

Hottest summers are yet to come. Global warming is no more just an agenda for discussions in international meetings and seminars. It has become a reality happening just in front of us.

A study conducted by India Meteorological Department, Pune warns that the severe heat waves over the Indian subcontinent in the last summer could be a clear indication of global warming. The summer in 1998 was the worst in the past 50 years. It took a toll of nearly 1300 human lives. Orissa was the worst effected and about 650 people died over there. The heat wave took its toll in almost every state.

During the period March-June, when the normal temperatures are generally high over the Indian subcontinent any further rise in temperature become a mater of concerns to all. Spells of abnormally hot weather conditions are some times observed to move progressively from one region to another and are there fore called "heat wave" explain scientists.

Heat wave considered to be severe when maximum temperature remain 7 degree Celsius or more of its long term normal value for a station having normal maximum temperature more than 40 degree and 5 degree or more of its long term normal vale for a station having normal temperature less than 40 degree. This criterion has been laid down by the Meteorological Department for declaring heat wave.

In 1998 major parts of the country experienced severe heat wave condition. Even the southern interior Karnataka and some stations of Tamil Nadu were under the grip of heat wave in this period. Chennai recorded a maximum temperature of 44 degree on 24th May -this is the highest recorded temperature in this century. Rajastan experienced a maximum of 49 degree and Delhi recorded the second highest maximum temperature in the past 54 years on 28th May. All these indicate abnormal rise in temperature in this region during summer- a phenomenon that we have been discussing as global warming, because of the depletion of Ozone layer.

People residing at a palce for sufficiantly long time get more or less acclimatised to the normal weather conditions, thus the maximum temperature of North- West India was nearing 50 degree the death toll was relatively less. Where as in Orissa large number of causalities have been reported primarily because the people have less adaptability to such extreme climate conditions, say scientists.

The present century is the warmest in the last six hundred years. The three warmest years of 1990s are hotter than any other period since the middle ages. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), in which India is also a member, the global average surface temperature of 1995 was 0.4 degree above than 1961-1990 average.

Observations made from different parts of world show that the previous warmest year since 1861 was 1990 that had an anomaly of 0.36 degree.

The first five months of 1998 were the planets hottest on the record, according to the scientist of the USA based National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. The average global temperature from January through May was about 17.2 degree marginal hotter than the previous recorded set in 1997.

All these indicate that the much discussed global warming has already been started making disturbances in our climate. Further studies in this subject are needed for under standing and predicting such extreme events that are extremely hazardous to the life on earth.

A report from the Hadley Centre for Climate Change in Braitain presented to 170 countries that met at Buenos Aires to discuss global warming is relay alarming especially for countries like India. Scientists have used all the data and necessary parameters into their supercomputer to make the following predictions, which is very much relevant to India.

1.

Land temperature will go up by 6 degree by the end of the next century. 2.

Sea level throughout the word will rise by 21 cm by the year 2050. This will have a major impact on Indian subcontinent. 3.

Number people on the cost subject to flooding each year will rise from about 5 million now to 100 million by 2050. 4.

Another 30 million people will be hungry in fifty years from now because it will be too dry to grow crops in many parts of the world. 5.

Malaria one of the world most feared diseases will threaten larger areas of the world with more aggressively.

All these indicate a bleak future for our civilisation. Developing countries are going to suffer the most. In India, Malaria has already shown an increasing trend in the recent past. Summers have become extremely hot. Floods in the coastal belt have become very common and kill thousands of people every year. This is high time for a collective search for a solution for the present crisis. Global climate change is no more a future crisis, it is happening here, very much in our presence.