The Naked Rain
By
V.Krishna Moorthy, Bhaskar Karnick

Contents The Dance of the Nature Water and Monsoon Rain in Human Life Rain and Health factors The Rain based Economy The Concern (Rain-based) Rain - Myths and rituals The facts from figures Reference Links

The Dance of the Nature

Mother Nature is a Great Teacher. In her all phenomenon are manifested. Nature reflects the Higher Ways of Spirit. By understanding the "Laws of Nature" and observing Nature, we understand life. Every entity has purpose and every phenomenon has reasons. Sometime nature seems to be cruel and that should not confuse us, for there is a duality in all things. Every single entity in nature is a purposeful part of the totality - it includes human being too. We fail to observe the nature, by including us as an integral part of it. We actually become a fragment in the dance of nature. By improper understanding and interpretation with our so-called knowledge of scientific inference, we may disturb the nature for a temporary gain and that may lead to disturb the very cycle of nature. By this, the Nature movements become random and uncoordinated. In our land, monsoon is the queen of seasons. Its royal presence brings the life into the landscape. Every sentient - human being, animals, plant, and even dry leaves dance with the rain. Plants, Streams, rocks, and clouds - all take part in this magnificent choreography. Where are we in the dance?

The Reality

Whenever the monsoon is delayed, it becomes the major concern. The entire national media closely track the arrival of monsoon. Indian Meteorological Department takes the shaky central stage. IMD has a major role to play. If it rains more than normal, the worry shifts to floods and the failure of monsoon leads to the draught.  Not much of interest is shown in building Mathematical models to explain the failure of by gone monsoon. New formula are not worked out or the failure maps are not drawn. We resort to more simplified reasoning - may be the American bombing in Afghanistan/Iraq or the El Nino/La Nino or Fever in the Stratosphere!!

On the set of monsoon, a typical statement from a government official or the commodity editor of the media normally reads like this 
"The country's projections on the output and exports of farm commodities remained unchanged, despite the delayed onset of the monsoon. India has forecast overall food grain production in 2002/03 (July-June) at 184.06 million tonnes and oilseeds production in 2002/03 (November-October) at 15.57 million tones".

The author moved around the country during the month of June - Delhi to Kanya Kumari. Allover especially in the towns, it is a cry for drinking water. People moving madly around to collect drinking water, are we in the 21st century? Anything out of a tap considered as drinkable. "Couple of days of failure of monsoon I think our well will go dry" seems to be common statement. Vernacular Magazine is full of jokes on bathing and drinking water.

The Naked Rain

Parched land, vegetation, birds, animals and people eagerly await the first rains. Summer gets treacherous in states like Gujarat. Gujaratis celebrate the first rainfall as Nago Varsad, that is, Naked Rain. There is anecdotal evidence of the medicinal property of the naked rain. Mothers encourage their children to play in the naked rain to relieve prickly heat. The first rain is celebrated in many states in our country. It is assumed that nature has done its job - the monsoon has arrived. TV channels are shifted out when  Weather report read out.

The Water and the Monsoon

We have abundance of water on earth. As a matter of fact 70% of the earth is covered with water and also 70% of human body is also of water. The importance of water can be gauged by the phrase- "Water- water every where not a drop to drink." One may wonder why this anomaly? Why some thing, is in abundance and at the same time scarce?

Major part of the available water dwells in the sea. Seawater has high concentration of salts and minerals making it a rich source of salt. The seawater remains unfit for either drinking or irrigation. Sea is the home for fishes and other aqua life. Sea has made inter continental travel easy and cheap through shipping. River water flows finally into the sea. That means in the water cycle most of the water is converted into saline form. The seawater evaporates to form rain-bearing clouds, which ultimately bring rains. The water cycle continues...

Rainwater is usable as it is formed through evaporation and condensation as in distillation process. Rainwater contains only impurities dissolved from atmosphere. Rain is the phenomena, which helps redistribute water on a continuous basis on the earth - forming water cycle.

Where are we this year? - let us see it later.

Rain in human life

The 70 % of water in human body itself makes the water an essential commodity for the very survival of humanity. Rain has been rightly considered as God - varuna and prayed for centuries. It is essential for life and in its ugly form of floods etc results in loss of life and property on an unimaginable scale. 

The life forms in all probability evolved from the sea. It has developed into most divergent forms in the adoption process. The changing forms may also because of environmental/ geographical location factors. From freezing cold to boiling temperature and from clean water to high concentration of salt & minerals. At some time point in the evolution process life forms migrated to land and have been evolving and adopting to the changing environment on the ground. 

Here on the land, the rain symbolizes the life itself. Immediately after the rain, the plants seem to be thrilled and grow much faster and greener. New branches shoot up and there is sudden change in the atmosphere. Definitely the same change is not seen by artificial irrigation or watering the plant even though the rain also pour on them just water. On the face of it, seems to be the same water only. It appears as though the plants can differentiate between the rainwater and the other forms.

With the start of monsoon, sowing of winter rice and oilseeds starts and progress along with the progress of the monsoon. Over India's southern and northeastern regions this is the scenario. The June-September southwest monsoon, bearing moist winds that trigger rains, is the lifeline of the economy and usually hits the southern coast , Kerala, on June 1. Every year sees a growth in the area of cultivation to keep up with the growing demand due to uncontrolled growth of population.

India's winter rice crop extends over about 40.6 million hectares with the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Eastern part of West Bengal and Orissa contributing the bulk of the crop. Sowing of groundnut, sesame, sunflower, soybean and castor also commences with the monsoon.

India's winter oilseeds are normally grown over about 15.76 million hectares including 5.82 million hectares under groundnut and 6.38 million hectares under soybean. Western Gujarat, Maharashtra and southern Andhra Pradesh are the main groundnut growing states while central Madhya Pradesh accounts for the bulk of the soybean output. Sugar cane a cash crop is cultivated over 3.53 million hectares. This being water intensive crop and the problem associated with delayed and low payment to farmers could see a down fall the area under cultivation.

The rain and the health factor

How is health connected to rain? We are directly and indirectly dependent for our food requirement on agriculture produce. Agriculture activities in our country are based on good rain. So if the rain fails our agriculture get adversely affected or so we think? Absence of rain produces draught condition in many parts of the country. The temperature goes up and results in many deaths. On the other hand excess of rain spoils the very harvest, which is dependent on it. Water scarcity leads to unhygienic condition and results in spreading of epidemics - killing many poor and innocent people. 

The Rain-based Economy

As ours is agriculture-based society and agriculture is a major source of raw material for many industries, the industrial and commercial activity depend on agriculture and the rain sets the mood. Any delay in the rain makes the summer hotter and longer, increases the power consumption and lowers the efficiency in general. Production of Vegetable and milk product is reduced considerably, thereby increasing the cost of the related items. The effect is wide spread and shows up on the national as well as individual purchasing power. It plays on GDP and the very stability of the government.
Thanks to the Indian agriculture scientists and farmers whose consistent and relentless effort has not only kept pace with growing population but in many respect over taken the food production to not only meet internal growing demand but to be able to export many commodities to the needy countries and meet the human obligation placed by the global community on our country. The reserve also takes care of monsoon failure. What we lack is storing, distribution and management systems - these are not in place. 


The Concern 

In all the issues discussed here rain becomes the major factor of concern. Different groups have different reasons to be concerned about. A farmer worries about his crops, the share market operators towards the share prices as rain being the major factor for the industries. A common city dweller is worried about the heat he has to bear. City Administration needs to worry about the drainage system, possibility of epidemic and etc. State government may have to worry either about the draught or the floods and the adverse effect on hydroelectric power generation. Even for school going children rain or no rain in both the cases commuting to school and other activities are made difficult.

Myths, rain and rituals

"The clouds that are formed in the first half of Chaitra (April) will yield water in the latter half of Ashwin (September) and those that are formed in the latter half of Chaitra (April) will rain in the first half of Karthika (October)" - Couplets 9-12, Chapter XXI, Brihat Samhita.

Here are some of the events in the news this year:

Karnataka government's call for special prayers to seek divine intervention for rains evoked lukewarm response in Bangalore - the seat of power - it was spontaneous in the districts. Muzrai minister Suma Vasanth, whose department is in charge of 42,000 temples in the state, attended the Varuna pooja at Talacauvery, birth place of the Cauvery in Madikeri district. Priests from Madikeri and Sringeri performed gana homa, ekadasha rudrabhisheka, parjanya japa, parjanya pooja, rishyashringa japa, Cauvery ashtothara, panchamrithabhisheka, Varuna pooja, Sapthashathi parayana and other pujas at Talacauvery and also at Bhagamandala temples.

Donkeys married in ritual to bring rain to Chennai on June 28, 2003. 

Five pairs of donkeys tied the knot on Saturday in an elaborate public wedding hoped to bring rain to Chennai. Several hundred devotees chanted mantras to bless the donkeys in eternal union in an hour-long ritual following local marriage customs in all respects save species. Despite the scorching sunshine, RK Bhagavathiraj, a religious scholar who organised the ceremony, said he was certain rain was now on its way. The donkeys were brought in from all over Tamil Nadu for the marriage. The city of 6.5 million has a critical shortage of water due to weak monsoons in recent years and a poor distribution system. For the past several months, many Chennai residents have had to seek water through tankers from the suburbs -- or, failing that, through donkey marriages.

The facts from figures

Let us see the first belief that agriculture yield depends on timely and sufficient rain. The data for last three decade doesn't show this. See table below.

Source: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, GOI 
*Advance Estimates as on 5.4.2002

ALL INDIA AREA, PRODUCTION &  YIELD OF RICE

The data is consistent from 1871 - 1990 in that it is constructed from a 306 station network, with no missing data. The number and distribution of stations for 1991 - 2000 is unknown.(Rainfall totals are given in millimeters)  

Rains or no rains the yield has been increasing consistently over the years. Of course the yield depends on many factors other than rain like the quality of seed fertilizer, pesticide, mechanization, sowing techniques the time etc. The above table shows that even though rain is considered major factor but there are other controlling factors which haven been undermining rain. Even where yield is low, it is higher if one looks at yield say past 4 years.

The rain data for the last century shows that average rainfall is maintained in spite of all variations and dynamics of the rain system. The table above make us believe that we need to be more concerned about the effect of rain on living conditions and immediate catastrophe because of flooding and draught rather than waiting for rain. The rain may be less or more as a whole or it the distribution of rainfall may change but the catastrophe that the rain phenomenon brings is sure to come.

The Prediction and  the reality

For the 2003 South-West Monsoon Season for the country as a whole, the new 8-Parameter Probabilistic Model indicates:

21 % probability of drought (rainfall less than 90 % of LPA)
39 % probability of below normal rainfall (90 to 97 % of LPA)
14 % probability of near normal rainfall (98 to 102 % of LPA)
23 % probability of above normal rainfall (103 to 110 % of LPA)
3 % probability of excess rainfall (more than 110 % of LPA)

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data, 20 of the 36 weather subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall for the week ending June 18, compared to 23 during the corresponding period of last year.

• IMD will issue a long range forecast .... update in mid-July 2003. Prospects For South-West Monsoon 2003? 
  - The Financial Express
  The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its 16 April forecast of the 2003 South-West (SW) monsoon has sent out somewhat confusing signals. It says that for the country as a whole (the SW monsoon) is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5 per cent. It further states that there is 21 per cent probability of drought (rainfall less than 90 per cent of LPA) and 39 per cent probability of below normal rainfall (90 to 97 per cent of LPA). Which amounts to saying that there is 60 per cent probability of drought or below normal rainfall .......Remember, however, that the IMD has made major changes in definition, starting 2003. Previously, rainfall of 91 per cent and above of LPA was considered normal. Thus, the normal SW monsoon in 1999, 2000 and 2001 brought precipitation of 96, 92 and 92 per cent of LPA respectively...................
  Australian climate forecast stations are also predicting heavier rain during the period May to July 2003. The chances of above median rainfall for the May to July period are between 60 and 75 per cent in the south east quarter of Queensland and much of the eastern half of New South Wales....The chances of above median rainfall are between 40 and 45 per cent over much of southern South Australia and north west Tasmania. Thus spoke the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology in its release of 15 April 2003.
  Is the IMD not in a position to provide forecasts with similar level of detail for different regions of India? It did try last year and got burnt. Which is no reason not to present its forecast findings to the public this year. ... The only way to establish its professionalism is to make public the product of its exertions without an eye to the comfort or discomfort of politicians. Else, it fails to serve the public interest.
  ***The author is economic advisor to ICRA (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency)

Reference Links

• http://www.waterconserve.info
  Water Conserve is a Water Conservation Portal and Internet Search Tool that provides access to reviewed water conservation news and information. Water Conserve is for non- commercial, educational purposes only and use signifies acceptance of these terms. Press Release Announcing Site - March 24, 2003......
• GSFC, NASA                  .....Rain, rain go away come again some other day. In much of the world, especially North America and Europe, rain and clouds are synonymous with feeling melancholy or gloomy. However, for about half the world, rain is considered the breath of life. Most of central Africa, northern Australia, southern and eastern China, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, southeast Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India are influenced by and dependent on rain bearing seasonal winds.......
• Hindu Online .........Chasing the monsoon - 2nd June, 2003
  THESE ARE busy days for the Meteorological office. The Met people are preoccupied with tracking the onset of this year's, so far elusive, monsoon. And a none-too-enviable task it is, at least till the monsoon designs to pay the southern coast of Kerala a visit. The whims and fancies of the monsoon are sure to throw anyone off balance. Progressing fast one day and refusing to budge the next, it is like a stubborn child.................
• ADRC Latest Disaster Information
• Environ Literacy..... although the oceans cover more than 70 percent of the globe and have a profound influence on all Earth's systems, it has been only in the last few decades that scientists have had the tools to investigate the deep ocean. Major advances in ocean science are shedding new light on global climate and the history of life on Earth.
  
• breaking.tcm.ie
......India's Hindus and Muslims pray for rain -01/06/2003 - 3:33:53 pm ....     Hundreds of thousands of Hindus and Muslims prayed in a southern Indian city today, seeking rain and a respite from a killer heatwave that has claimed 884 lives.Some 100,000 Muslims offered special prayers for rain in Hyderabad, the capital of Andhra Pradesh state, following a tradition. In another part of the city, more than 5,000 Hindus gathered on the bed of a dried out lake, chanting sacred hymns and prayers from ancient Hindu texts for a reprieve from the blazing heat that has gripped the state..................
• 2003 Global Register of Major Flood Events
• Still looking to the skies .......Rain water harvesting (RWH) is again a topic of discussion, debate and desperation in Chennai. In some parts of the city, a middle-class family of four spends an average of a Rs.1,000 per month to purchase water. It is the sort of economics that can make RWH apparatus pay for itself within three years. Lalitha Sridhar reports.
• People's Planning for Water sustainability - Indiatogether .... The small village of Idkidu has become an ideal rain-catching village by its efforts to restore the lost groundwater level. Shree Padre reports.
  December 2002 - Idkidu is a small farming village in the Dakshina Kannada district of Karnataka. It is blessed with ample groundwater. This has turned into a curse, though; with the shift in cultivation from paddy to arecanut (betel nut) and the steep rise in prices this cash crop could fetch, borewells were dug indiscriminately. Recently, the groundwater level has been shrinking year after year. According to a water status survey conducted by Amrutha Sinchana Farmers' Service Federation (ASFSF), a local farmers' organisation, the 2100-acre village has 1/3 of its land for irrigated crop, with 364 borewells belonging to 230 farming families. This has its detrimental effect: Of 303 dug-wells, only 10 per cent (34) have water throughout the year, whereas nearly 50 per cent (152) of the dug wells remain dry for a period of 3 months or more. 10 per cent of the bore-wells (35) have turned completely dry. Yields of more than 50 per cent of the borewells (184) have fallen by 30 per cent or more in recent years.
• Climate Update for Asia ......A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated April 2003 .....The El Nio of 2002-03 has now nearly dissipated to neutral conditions, and the remaining slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are likely to decrease further during the mid-April to June period. The outlook beyond June 2003 is more uncertain. Based on the behavior of past El Nio events and current model forecasts, it is most likely that conditions will be near-neutral during the second half of 2003. 
• Through the end of May, lingering climate effects associated with the nearly dissipated El Nio are expected to be weak.
• Monsoon rain across India: a seasonal cycle of disaster Some of the worst monsoon rains in the last 50 years have been inundating portions of India, killing as many as 100 people and leaving millions homeless. Hardest hit has been the eastern state of Orissa, in the lowlands bordering the Bay of Bengal, where 24 of its 30 districts have been flooded. The monsoon typically begins in late May or early June in southwestern India, then progresses northward over the subcontinent from mid-July to September. Similar winds bring heavy rains to much of Southeast Asia. - July, 2001
  
• Know your weather Now
• Plymouth State Meteorology Program Cloud Boutique
  
  
• APPLICATION OF ERS SCATTEROMETER WINDS TO TYPHOON, MONSOON, RAIN, AND EL NINO STUDIES
  
  Rain Poems
  
  Water
  Water can mean the gift of life,
  But throughout the world it can cause much strife.
  But from where do we get this precious gift?
  The clouds above can make rivers so swift.
  The heat on Earth makes vapour rise,
  Catching the clouds by surprise.
  Soon the clouds grow big and fat,
  The rain then falls to the land so flat.
  
  -Liverpool College, Olivia 4P
  
  
• Climatology Interdisciplinary Data Collection (CIDC)
  Monsoon to boost agri-output in 2003-04: Press Trust of India New Delhi, July 4.... Government on Friday expressed optimism over increase in the country's oilseeds and grains output driven by near normal rainfall in the current season. "Hopefully, there should be a major rise in oilseeds and grains output in the current year, given the latest trends in monsoon, though it is too early to quantify the likely production," Agriculture Secretary RCA Jain told PTI.